The outcomes of the governorship elections across the states will determine the landscape of Nigerian party politics in the years ahead.
Nigerians are returning to the polls today to choose governors across 28 states and members of the state legislative assemblies across the federation.
The subnational elections are taking place three weeks after the presidential and National Assembly elections, which resulted in the APC winning the presidency and majority seats in the bicameral federal legislature.
While the opposition LP, which has been energised by the Obidient Movement, will be looking at consolidating its gains from the last federal elections, the PDP is battling to reclaim its traditional base in Southern Nigeria from LP and snatch seats from the APC in Northern Nigeria to stand a chance of survival as a major party.
In the South-east, governorship elections are being held in only Abia, Ebonyi, and Enugu states today, while Anambra and Imo have off-cycle elections later.
The region was a traditional PDP base. But the sweeping influence of Peter Obi and his Obidient Movement appears to have taken the shine off PDP in the region.
The near-total votes received by the LP in the presidential election in the region might, though, be a result of the so-called Obi Tsunami. As Mr Obi is no longer on the ballot, PDP would hope voters return to favour them today.
However, LP would need to sweep the polls in the region to strengthen its structure as Nigeria’s next big opposition or a formidable ruling party in case it is able to upturn Bola Tinubu of APC’s presidential victory through the judiciary.
In Abia State, LP has a fairly strong candidate, Alex Otti, contesting against Okey Ahiwe of PDP, who only joined the race in February following the passing of Uche Ikonne.
Mr Ahiwe was a Chief of Staff to Governor Okezie Ikpeazu, who lost his senatorial bid to the LP and is scarcely able to showcase achievements needed to persuade the voting population to vote for the PDP. Expectations are not high that the APC and APGA take a win in Abia.
However, in Enugu, APGA’s Frank Nweke Jr has enjoyed a strong following including interests from the Obidient Movement. Mr Nweke was an Obasanjo-era information minister and is largely thought to be a clear-headed and forward-looking decent politician.
He may spring a surprise if LP voters do not go en bloc behind their own candidate Chijioke Edeoga. Ruling PDP’s Peter Mbah is also a strong contender but APC’s Uchenna Nnaji does not appear to be a match for any of the other top contenders.
In Ebonyi, if APC will retain the governorship seat, it must be a function of Governor Dave Umahi’s strength, which rests on his modest performance. He won his senatorial bid despite the Obi Tsunami which swept through the region.
South-south is another region which had traditionally supported the PDP until the last presidential election when the party only struggled to win two – Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom – of the six states.
However, LP would struggle to reenact the 25 March performance in the region. In Rivers and Delta, particularly, a tough battle is expected for the soul of these oil-abundant states between APC, PDP, and LP.
In Cross River, it is either PDP reclaims what it lost when Governor Ben Ayade defected to APC or LP takes the state. APC scarcely stands a chance after its leader Mr Ayade lost his senatorial bid.