By Hamilton Odunze
If you go back to 2022, when Peter Obi first ran against Bola Tinubu, I said to Nigerians that the former was an off-ramp for a Nigerian train headed to disaster town. Most Nigerians knew it, and it was the premise of their support for him. But Nigerians missed the opportunity then; now, they hope the chance comes again in the next presidential election cycle. The truth is that if Obi continues to run, he will always be an opportunity for Nigeria to get things right.
So, as we go into the next election, Peter Obi remains the only person who knows what it takes to serve the people of Nigeria. He has the conviction and courage to move the country forward. My assessment of him as an off-ramp for a Nigerian train headed to disaster town has not changed.
But in the past few days, social media has credited Obi with a statement that requires scrutiny. There is a trending social media controversy about Obi saying he would serve only four years if elected president of Nigeria. Some have said that he made the statement because he knows that if he ever gets elected the first time, he will have no chance of a second term.
But Obi’s supporters have argued that while he can change Nigeria in four years, he made the statement about being a one-term president in 2022; therefore, he should not be held accountable for it. They argue that the credibility of that statement has expired. However, in a recent post on X, Peter Obi doubled down on his statement and confirmed that he indeed would serve one term.
To support his statement, Obi alluded to some of the most prominent political figures in the past century. For example, he cited that Abraham Lincoln served only four years as president of the United States. He also noted that John F. Kennedy did not even complete full term.
But I have a beef with Obi’s statement and the examples he used to support it.
Before I evaluate Obi’s statement on its merits, it is essential to touch on the examples he gave. Consider Abraham Lincoln, for instance. In his post on X, Obi said that Lincoln served four years and was a one-term president of the United States. But Lincoln was not a one-term president, and Americans do not consider him a one-term president. He was elected to his first term on November 6, 1860, and led America through the Civil War, and won a second term before he was killed.
Consider also John F. Kennedy, who Obi also said was a one-term president. In the traditional sense, Kennedy was also not a one-term president. He was the 35th president of the United States, whose presidency was cut short when he was assassinated on November 22, 1963. Kennedy was actively campaigning for a second term when he was killed. Again, Americans do not consider Kennedy a one-term president.
Using these Americans as examples underscores the problem with democracy in Nigeria. As much as we want to practise an American-type democracy and use Americans as examples, the truth is that it is a sophisticated system, and the political actors are different and more mature. The political environments are not the same, just as the people’s governance needs are not the same.
But there is a more troubling issue with Obi’s statement, which is what Nigerians should be discussing. If Obi says and stands by his statement about being a one-term president, it begs the question: does he think he can achieve the lasting change Nigerians need in four years? Does his statement not show that he has a myopic view of the problems?
Here is what I mean.
Anyone who thinks that four years is all it takes to change Nigeria sees the country’s problem from an infrastructural perspective. Surprisingly, Peter Obi sees it this way. But the problem is foundational, it is structural and systemic. The lack of infrastructure, which we all suffer from as Nigerians, is only a symptom of the problem. You can build in four years, but it takes a change in the way Nigerians think to sustain the structures. Obi can build in four years, but without a good foundation and reorientation of Nigerians, it will all crumble soon after he leaves. Nigerians have seen this happen too many times.
When I wrote in support of Peter Obi in 2022, one of the reasons I gave for my support was that his win would begin to change the way Nigerians think, and that it would also encourage other candidates who do not offer “shishi” to come out and fight for the people. The first stage of lasting change for Nigeria is to create an environment for many more Peter Obis in a chain of succession. But four years is not enough to do it.
Building infrastructure is good, but many of us thought that Obi’s focus, if elected, should be to reshape the foundation of politics in Nigeria.
Obi is an intellectual, and he understands the premise of the argument I make in this article. He knows that four years is not enough to lay the foundation of lasting change in Nigeria. So, when he says that he will be a one-term president, he leaves us wondering what he wants to achieve for Nigerians.
I hope he responds and lets Nigerians know what he wants to do towards building a foundation like the one Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy established. It is the only way to leave a legacy that will endure long after he is gone.
Odunze is a Lagos-based public affairs commentator